Intensifying War of Words Between Ethiopia and Eritrea Raises Fears of Military Confrontation

Mounting concerns have emerged over the possibility of armed conflict among Horn of Africa neighbors, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as aggressive discourse has escalated in recent weeks.

Horn of Africa region
Ethiopia and Eritrea cooperated in the civil war in northern Ethiopia but they have later become estranged.

What Has Ethiopia Stated?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for entry to the sea coast through Eritrean territory has sparked a fierce verbal exchange.

PM Abiy Ahmed previously announced in 2023 that his government's maritime access was an vital issue, remarks that Eritrea ignored.

Ties between the both governments have regularly been difficult. After a decades-long struggle for freedom, Eritrea, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) sea border, legally broke away from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, making it without sea access.

Subsequently, a military clash erupted in which more than 100,000 people were killed.

Latest Statements from Ethiopian Officials

Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted ownership of Eritrean maritime facility of Assab – some 60 km from the frontier - and hinted at the intention to take it by force.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said the country's "error" of losing entry to the Red Sea as a due to Eritrean independence would be "rectified in the future".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that the port was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be restored "using武力".

Eritrea's Response to the Statements

In the face of persistent challenges from Ethiopian officials, Asmara's position has been limited to concise remarks on online platforms from Information Minister Yemane G..

He has rejected Ethiopia's demand for access to the Red Sea labeling it "hazardous" and a "harmful plan" of "territorial claims" – a strategy of claiming back previous domains.

Eritrean authorities alerted on 16 September that moves to validate "obvious provocation" would have serious consequences for Ethiopia and its neighbors and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Preparations on the Region

So far, there are no reports of major military movements in the frontier regions between the neighboring states.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, national TV has shown completion events of thousands of cadets at various military training camps.

The leader of human resources department of the military, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, recently said in an discussion that the defense forces was in a "reliable position" as "tens of thousands of youths" were entering service, which he said was "a message to our opponents".

Historical Background of the Dispute

For more than half a century from 1890, the territory was governed by Italian colonisers.

Following World War II, it was then controlled by the British military before turning into a federated part of Ethiopia.

However in the early 1960s the Ethiopian emperor ended this agreement and the region became completely integrated into Ethiopia.

A extended armed struggle occurred, ending with military reversal in 1991. Sovereignty was then approved by the population in a vote in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were good relations between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the exact location of their mutual frontier, resulting in hostilities in 1998.

Although this concluded in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was partially applied, and the two nations stayed at odds.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made approaches to Eritrean President President Isaias. The two agreed to a announcement that the war was over – a decision that gained the Prime Minister the Nobel Peace Prize.

The both administrations were then cooperators in the country's recent civil war in Tigray.

But relations have subsequently deteriorated anew.

Kimberly Long
Kimberly Long

Alex Thornton is the founding director of Local Studio, with over 20 years of experience in community-led design and sustainable architecture.